What Are Predicted Grades and Why Do They Matter for A Level Students?

19/09/2025 / Online Tutoring

For parents of A Level students in the UAE or elsewhere, the term “predicted grades” often comes up during the university application process—but what does it really mean, and why does it matter so much? These teacher-estimated grades play a pivotal role in determining university offers and shaping post-school plans. In this article, we explore what predicted grades are, how they’re calculated, and how you can best support your child through this important academic milestone.

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Understanding the Basics: What Are Predicted Grades?

Predicted grades are a teacher’s best professional estimate of the A Level results a student is likely to attain by the end of their course. They are based on the student’s academic performance up until the time they are made, usually during the latter part of Year 12 or the beginning of Year 13. These grades play a central role in the UCAS university application process, where they are used to support applications and help universities make informed decisions on which students to offer places.

The importance of predicted grades lies in their function as a substitute for final results during the application window. Since universities must make offers months before actual exams take place, they depend on these predictions to assess whether a student is capable of meeting the demands of a particular course. As a result, predicted grades often form the academic basis of conditional offers—offers that require students to achieve certain grades in their final A Levels to secure their place.

Unlike final A Level results, which are externally examined and standardised nationally, predicted grades are determined internally by each student’s subject teachers. The process is holistic and draws on various pieces of evidence. This typically includes mock exam results, performance in assignments and classroom tests, quality of coursework (where applicable), and the student’s overall engagement and progress in the subject. Teachers are also likely to consider behavioural factors such as reliability, motivation, and consistency in effort, which all contribute to how likely a student is to meet or exceed expectations in the final exams.

While not intended to be exact forecasts, predicted grades are meant to be fair and aspirational, offering a realistic view of what the student could achieve under typical exam conditions with continued hard work. Most schools encourage staff to avoid both overestimating and underestimating student potential, as either extreme can have unhelpful consequences. Predict too high, and a student may receive offers that are ultimately unachievable. Predict too low, and they may be denied the chance to apply to more competitive courses or universities.

The process requires professional judgement and careful consideration, often involving departmental discussions or oversight by senior academic staff to ensure consistency across subjects and students. In this sense, predicted grades are not just about academic numbers—they reflect a dialogue between evidence, expectations, and educational insight. For students, they also offer a valuable snapshot of where they currently stand and how their efforts might translate into outcomes in the months ahead.

In British curriculum schools across the UAE, this process aligns closely with UK standards. However, with the additional layer of international schooling, there may be subtle differences in how assessments are approached or how teacher evidence is compiled. Regardless of setting, predicted grades serve the same fundamental purpose: to act as a realistic but aspirational forecast of final outcomes.

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The Role of Predicted Grades in University Applications

For students applying to university from the UAE, predicted grades are more than just an academic formality—they are a critical component of the admissions process. Since UCAS applications are submitted early in Year 13, long before the final A Level exams take place, universities must base their decisions on these projected outcomes. As such, predicted grades serve as a kind of academic promise, indicating what a student is likely to achieve and helping admissions tutors assess whether applicants are suitably prepared for their chosen course.

When a university extends a conditional offer, it typically specifies the A Level grades a student must achieve to confirm their place. These requirements are often set in line with, or just slightly above, the student’s predicted grades. For example, if a student is predicted three As, a university may issue a conditional offer based on achieving those exact grades. If a student falls short of their predictions when results are released, they risk not meeting the conditions of the offer, which could lead to losing that university place.

The weight carried by predicted grades is particularly significant for competitive courses and highly sought-after institutions. In such cases, even a single grade difference can influence an offer. This is especially true for universities like Oxford, Cambridge, or those offering medicine, dentistry, and veterinary science, where the standard of academic performance is exceptionally high. These institutions often expect applicants to be predicted top grades—typically A* and A across the board—and any variation may impact whether an application is shortlisted or interviewed.

While other aspects of the UCAS application, such as personal statements, school references, and admissions tests, are also important, the predicted grades provide a clear, quantifiable measure of a student’s current trajectory. They give admissions teams an indication of how well an applicant has performed to date and whether they are likely to thrive under the academic demands of university-level study.

This emphasis on predicted grades places considerable importance on students performing strongly from the very beginning of sixth form. It also highlights the need for consistency and effort throughout Year 12, as this is often the period when teachers begin forming the evidence base for their predictions. For families, it is worth noting that while the final exams determine actual outcomes, the predicted grades set the tone for university access. In this way, they are not simply internal assessments—they actively shape future opportunities.

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How Teachers Determine Predicted Grades

The process of determining predicted grades is neither casual nor inconsistent. Teachers follow established guidance provided by exam boards, as well as internal policies set by their schools, to ensure that these predictions are grounded in evidence and professionally judged. Far from being a guess or a gesture of encouragement, predicted grades are the result of a detailed, reflective process that draws on a wide variety of information.

This includes performance in Year 12 assessments, mock examinations, and internal tests, as well as the quality of work submitted over time—be it essays, projects, or lab reports. Teachers also observe how a student engages during lessons, whether they meet deadlines, how they respond to feedback, and whether they show a consistent trajectory of improvement. In some cases, they may look back even further, considering a student’s prior attainment at GCSE or the general patterns in their academic development.

Assigning these grades involves a delicate balance. On the one hand, teachers want to reflect a student’s potential and reward hard work, especially where progress has been evident. On the other, there is a responsibility to be realistic and not set a student up for disappointment by predicting grades that may not be attainable. Inflated predictions can result in conditional university offers that are ultimately unachievable, while predictions that err too far on the cautious side may prevent a student from applying to certain institutions altogether.

For international schools, including those operating under the British system in the UAE, there may be added emphasis on internal moderation. These might involve discussions between subject departments, review by senior staff, or comparison of predicted grades across different teachers to check for anomalies. This kind of oversight helps avoid bias—intentional or otherwise—and supports the credibility of the predictions being submitted.

For parents, understanding this structured approach can provide reassurance. Knowing that these grades are based on thorough evaluation rather than a single test score or a personal hunch helps demystify the process. It also provides an opportunity for meaningful dialogue with teachers. If a student feels that their predicted grade doesn’t reflect their effort or potential, a respectful conversation—grounded in evidence—can sometimes lead to a review. At the very least, it can help families and students align their expectations, allowing for more informed decision-making when it comes to university choices and final exam preparation.

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Why Predicted Grades Aren’t the Final Word

One of the most important things to keep in mind—especially in the high-achieving environment common in UAE international schools—is that predicted grades are not the final verdict. They represent a possibility, not a promise. Students can and do exceed their predictions, particularly with focused support and a solid revision plan.

Universities are aware that students applying from international schools may experience different academic pressures or educational styles. Some institutions take this into account and may exercise flexibility, especially if a student’s final grades outperform their predictions. On the other hand, if a student falls short, options such as clearing or adjustment offer viable paths into higher education.

For students in the UAE, where opportunities are often global in scope, this flexibility is a reassurance. Many apply to universities in more than one country, and understanding that predicted grades are just part of a bigger academic picture can reduce stress and broaden perspective.

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How Principal Tutors Supports Students Aiming for Strong Predicted Grades at A Level

Predicted grades play a pivotal role in shaping a student’s university options, particularly for those studying within British curriculum schools in the UAE. The need to perform consistently and show strong academic growth during Year 12 and early Year 13 is clear—and that’s where tailored academic support can be invaluable.

At Principal Tutors, we offer one-to-one online tutoring with UK-qualified teachers who are familiar with the standards and expectations of A Level study. Whether your child is working to improve specific subject knowledge, strengthen performance after mock exams, or simply needs greater structure and motivation, our tutors are here to help them stay on track.

We understand the pressures that come with studying in a high-expectation, international context like the UAE. That’s why we take a personalised approach—focusing not just on grades, but on confidence, clarity, and academic independence. Our tutors guide students through subject content, assessment objectives, and effective study techniques to help ensure they meet, and ideally exceed, their predicted grades.

Lessons are delivered online, making them easy to access from anywhere in the UAE, and scheduled flexibly around school hours and family life. We also keep parents informed, so support becomes a collaborative effort with real impact.

If your child is aiming for top predicted grades and you want to give them every advantage, we’re here to help. Call 0800 772 0974 or visit our website to request a tutor today.

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